Arizona’s largest metro is entering a new stage of commercial transformation. The Phoenix commercial real estate market, long fueled by population growth and industrial demand, is now expanding beyond the urban core into the fast-developing West Valley. Fueled by infrastructure investment, a diverse employer base, and rising interest from national developers, submarkets like Buckeye, Goodyear, and Surprise are redefining growth across Greater Phoenix.
A Market on the Move
Phoenix’s commercial real estate market is once again in transition. After years of headline-grabbing growth and record-setting development, the Valley’s expansion is entering a new phase, one defined not by the city’s traditional hubs but by the rise of outer growth corridors transforming into full-fledged commercial real estate engines. As migration continues to push westward and southward, the region’s CRE fundamentals are evolving to meet a different kind of demand. What was once considered speculative land is now the epicenter of activity for industrial real estate, retail space development, and mixed-use commercial projects alike. Investors and developers are watching closely as local market trends point toward long-term opportunities in land, logistics, and commercial property investment.
The Expanding Frontier
The story of growth in Phoenix commercial real estate can no longer be told without mentioning Buckeye, Goodyear, and Surprise. Each of these cities has emerged as a defining force in the next chapter of the Valley’s expansion and a focal point for industrial property development and retail leasing opportunities. Buckeye, recently named one of the fastest growing cities in the nation, has seen industrial absorption climb steadily alongside new housing starts. In May, GTI Energy revealed plans for a 530,000-square-foot manufacturing and logistics facility at Lakin Park, a $33 million commercial real estate investment expected to create up to 600 new jobs once fully operational. This expansion underscores Goodyear’s growing appeal for industrial tenants seeking modern infrastructure, strategic connectivity, and affordable commercial land for sale to serve the Western U.S. Meanwhile, in Surprise, the recently delivered 168,000-square-foot Desert Cove Industrial Center sold in July for $36.28 million, fully leased to a major global tenant, reinforcing the strong retail and industrial leasing trends across the region. Together, these submarkets represent the diversification of Phoenix’s CRE growth story, a balance between affordability, accessibility, and long-term commercial property investment potential.
Infrastructure as the Catalyst
Behind every commercial growth corridor lies one common denominator: infrastructure. The expansion of Loop 303, improvements along I-10, and new utility investments across Maricopa County have fundamentally changed the commercial property planning equation. These projects don’t just support population growth; they redefine where retail site selection and industrial development opportunities exist. Developers and investors are paying close attention to the next wave of planned infrastructure as indicators of where value will emerge next. The relationship between infrastructure and commercial real estate viability has never been more direct, and the speed at which new corridors mature reflects that.
The Psychology of Expansion
The momentum across Phoenix’s emerging submarkets isn’t driven by speculation alone; it’s supported by a psychological shift among both investors and tenants. The traditional definition of “prime” location is being rewritten. Where companies once prioritized proximity to the urban core, many are now prioritizing access, workforce availability, and cost stability. This shift is reshaping retail leasing decisions, office space selection, and tenant improvement allowances as part of a more strategic approach to occupancy. It has also spurred confidence among lenders and investors who view these growth corridors as safer, long-term bets rather than fringe experiments. The result is a market that feels both dynamic and disciplined, a rare combination that underscores Phoenix’s maturing commercial real estate ecosystem and the growing sophistication of CRE investment strategies.
Looking Ahead
The evolution of Phoenix’s outer markets is more than a passing trend; it’s a structural shift that will shape the region for years to come. As developers, investors, and brokers look toward 2026 and beyond, the corridors taking shape today will define tomorrow’s commercial real estate landscape. From large-scale industrial real estate projects to neighborhood retail development, mixed-use construction, and small business leasing opportunities, the pipeline remains strong. The Valley’s growth story has always been one of reinvention, and as its borders expand once again, it’s clear that the next wave of Phoenix CRE success lies just beyond the edge of yesterday’s map.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Why are Buckeye, Goodyear, and Surprise leading Phoenix’s CRE growth?
These cities offer affordable land, skilled labor, and direct access to Loop 303 and I-10. Each submarket now attracts industrial, retail, and mixed-use projects that once clustered near Phoenix proper.
These cities offer affordable land, skilled labor, and direct access to Loop 303 and I-10. Each submarket now attracts industrial, retail, and mixed-use projects that once clustered near Phoenix proper.
2. What infrastructure projects are shaping the West Valley CRE market?
Major improvements include the I-10 Widening Project, multiple Loop 303 interchanges, and regional water and power extensions. Together they have expanded viable development zones and improved logistics efficiency.
Major improvements include the I-10 Widening Project, multiple Loop 303 interchanges, and regional water and power extensions. Together they have expanded viable development zones and improved logistics efficiency.
3. How much does industrial or retail space cost in the West Valley?
Industrial leases typically range from $7 to $10 PSF NNN, while retail averages $20 to $35 PSF NNN depending on corridor visibility and tenant improvements.
Industrial leases typically range from $7 to $10 PSF NNN, while retail averages $20 to $35 PSF NNN depending on corridor visibility and tenant improvements.
4. How long does it take to develop a new commercial property in Goodyear?
Permitting and construction usually require 6 to 12 months for standard industrial shells, influenced by utility connections and design scope.
Permitting and construction usually require 6 to 12 months for standard industrial shells, influenced by utility connections and design scope.
5. Which sectors are investors focusing on through 2025?
Industrial logistics, last-mile distribution, and neighborhood retail remain the most active, with increasing attention on mixed-use and build-to-suit developments near the Loop 303.
Industrial logistics, last-mile distribution, and neighborhood retail remain the most active, with increasing attention on mixed-use and build-to-suit developments near the Loop 303.
6. How will continued migration affect commercial demand?
Population inflow toward the West Valley supports sustained retail absorption and light-industrial leasing through 2026. Housing starts in Buckeye and Surprise suggest long-term stability.
Population inflow toward the West Valley supports sustained retail absorption and light-industrial leasing through 2026. Housing starts in Buckeye and Surprise suggest long-term stability.
References:
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2025/10/06/arizona-growth-corridor-infrastructure.html
